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Vu sur : mashable.com

Cisco has unveiled its first entry into the tablet computer space: the Cius, a 7-inch HD business collaboration device running the Google Android operating system.

The Cisco Cius was revealed earlier today by CEO John Chambers at a conference in Las Vegas. Like most Cisco devices, the Cius is designed with the business user in mind. It is a virtual desktop and telecommunication machine, complete with a front facing 720p HD camera and a second, 5-megapixel rear-facing camera. It’s smaller than an iPad, with a 7-inch screen and weighing only 1.15 pounds.

The device is designed to be mobile. It runs a modified version of the Google Android operation system, which is becoming more and more popular for use in tablet devices. It also comes with 3G capability, along with Wi-Fi, Bluetooth (Bluetooth) and Micro-USB support. Cisco claims that the device will go for eight hours “under normal usage.” As a bonus, the battery is detachable.

The key to this tablet is the suite of Cisco software products that it will run. The list includes Cisco Quad, Show and Share, WebEx, Presence and Cisco TelePresence; it also supports Unified Communications Manager. It looks like these apps will run as modified Android (Android) applications.

Any tablet, even an enterprise-focused tablet, inevitably compete with the iPad. However, Cisco’s device does sound like it has a lot of business features that the iPad does not, especially its deep integration with Cisco telecommunication products. The inclusion of two cameras for teleconferencing alone could make it a popular buy with enterprise companies.

Customer trials begin in the third quarter, meaning that you could see Cius tablets floating around as early as next month. However, the device won’t officially launch until early 2011, right around the time Apple is likely to unveil the next version of the iPad.

Below are some more details regarding the device’s specs. Let us know your first impressions of the Cius in the comments.
Cisco Cius: Official Specs

Tablet Capabilities:

* 802.11a/b/g/n Wi-Fi, 3G/4G data and Bluetooth 3.0 help employees stay connected on and off-campus
* HD video (720p) with Cisco TelePresence solution interoperability for lifelike video communication with the simplicity of a phone call
* Virtual desktop client enables highly secure access to cloud-based business applications
* Android operating system, with access Android marketplace applications
* Collaboration applications including Cisco Quad, Cisco Show and Share, WebEx, Presence, and IM

Tablet Highlights:

* 7” diagonal, high-resolution color screen with contact-based touch targets
* HD Soundstation supports Bluetooth and USB peripherals, 10/100/1000 wired connectivity and a handset option
* Detachable and serviceable 8-hour battery for a full day of work
* Highly secure remote connections with Cisco AnyConnect Security VPN Client
* HD audio with wideband support (tablet, HD Soundstation)

Vu sur : trendsnow.net

Imaginée par l’agence Leo Burnett Shanghai pour augmenter la notoriété de la marque premium de poêles anti-adhésives Supor, un petit clin d’oeil pour cette excellente opération d’ambient marketing aussi spectaculaire que décalée qui a entraîné une hausse des ventes de près de 20% dans les centres commerciaux sélectionnés. Le principe ? L’agence a tout simplement installé une rampe de skate, habillée en wok géant, dans laquelle des patineurs déguisés en lardons, crevettes, poissons et autres dés de carottes ont pu se défouler sous le regard des passants. Une idée originale et inattendue à découvrir en images en vidéo dans la suite !

Vu sur : smashingmagazine.com

Web, industrial, interior… You name it and there are designers for it. We’re all trained in our particular areas (as we should be), but it would do us some good sometimes to look beyond our borders for new approaches to design problems. For a fresh perspective, here we’ll apply several principles of interior design to Web design and see what ideas would help change some of our stuck-in-a-rut design practices.

[Offtopic: by the way, have you ever visited Smashing Magazine's List of tags? There might be something interesting for you.]

Balance

How It Works

In interior design, balance breaks down into two kinds: formal and informal.

Formal balance is simple. It is achieved in a room when objects on one side of a room are a mirror-image of the other side of the room. It focuses on symmetry (creating a mirrored effect) and is the easiest to create — just think of two nightstands on either side of a bed or two sconces on either side of a fireplace. However, it can become overwhelming with too many objects or a busy color palette. Too much can make a good design concept ugly.

Informal balance is an asymmetrical approach based on visual weight. You don’t have to use identical objects to achieve balance; rather, use objects that are different but have similar visual “weight.” For example, you could balance a large couch by putting a large TV in the same room. In Web design, we also seek balance: large type can balance large imagery. Play with informal balance; it can lend intrigue to a seemingly simple design and add quirkiness to a vintage look.

Why It’s Important

Balance is one of the first things we notice in a design, often subconsciously. If something seems off-kilter, it may have to do with balance, and it can be difficult to move on and appreciate the design’s other aspects. Balancing color, images and textures gives a look of completion to a design and shows the user that you have an eye for detail.

Hint for Designers

Balance isn’t limited to being either symmetrical or asymmetrical. Try radial balance too: center a circular image and add smaller images “radiating” away from it (an example from interior design would be a circular dining table and chairs). Radial balance designates a focal point and almost effortlessly provides for a sense of rhythm or momentum.

Examples

Travis Gertz Experimentationalism
Here, the designer uses visual weight to achieve balance. The word “analog” is extremely big, but it balances out the larger width and length of the camera image — a point-size smaller and the word would have been lost. Below the image is smaller type, but it works because the paragraph spans the same width and height as the image.

Ethno Port Ponzan
Ethno Port Ponzan’s design uses radial balance, having the sub-page links placed on rings around a central focus. Though the links are placed at different distances, the ring design lends the balance because they lay equidistantly from the center logo. Radial balance can be one of the easiest, fastest methods of achieving balance, and Ethno Port Ponzan is an example of using such balance successfully.

Zee
This is asymmetrical balance using text as the design. Here “Always in the loop” is the focal point, and the designer uses the visual weight of heavier fonts, large punctuation and smaller images for balance.

Proportion

How It Works

Proportion has to do with how the sizes of objects in a room relate to each other. For instance, a large couch shouldn’t be in front of a 16″ TV, and a large bed shouldn’t be between small end tables. The same rule goes for Web design; a large font shouldn’t be put beside a small focal point. We could also consider this when doing “scene” designs, such as a wall with frames and landscape illustrations.

Why It’s Important

Proportion is like balance: if it feels off, it’s hard to focus on anything else. Proportion is vital to recreating an environment. If a coffee mug is too big for a desk or a cow too large for the landscape, it’s hard to believe the setting. True-to-life proportion makes a scene believable and a font-graphic relationship appealing.

Hint for Designers

Most of us think that flamboyantly large text beside a large image is overbearing, and we tend to “fix” the problem by making one of them smaller. For proportion, though, we should keep large with large and small with small; that keeps the design believable and balanced.

Examples

Foxie
Foxie’s design is a great example of effective proportion because the bookcase area features objects that are generally in proportion and therefore “believable.” The various items in the bookcase (such as the remote and trophy) are meant to establish a whimsical atmosphere, so we can be somewhat lenient in accepting the scene as realistic. That is, despite the few inconsistencies in proportion, we still “buy it.”

Work Awesome
Much like Foxie, our eyes move naturally from the meat of the design to the information area because we aren’t distracted by disproportion. This scene’s main objects — keyboard, coffee cup, computer mouse — are realistically proportionate. Like the last example, it’s believable.

RZMota
Unlike Work Awesome (in which a large part of the design focuses on the information area), RZMota’s design relies heavily on the believability of the scene. Making all of the objects proportional is not easy, especially with so many of them, but RZMota shows us that it can be done.

Rhythm

How It Works

In interiors, rhythm is created by placing a unifier in the room, such as a color, pattern or texture. A sense of movement is created when the unifier is repeated throughout the space; the eye doesn’t stop on one piece but rather alights here and there on pieces of the unifier. We can do this in Web design as well by taking a texture, pattern or form and repeating it throughout a design.

Why It’s Important

Rhythm keeps the room cohesive and allows the eye to move easily about the room to experience all parts of the design. Rhythm is as important to Web design as it is in physical places. In a unified design, finding information happens naturally and at a rhythmic pace.

Hint for Designers

The single most important thing to remember is to add variety to the repetition. If the color white is your unifier, then use it in textures, images, CSS, etc. A little variety is healthy and keeps a website from becoming boring.

Examples

Interaktionsdesign
The rhythm on Interaktionsdesign’s site extends past the yellow accents. Rather, the careful repetition of the small arrows allows the eye to flow around the page and lends cohesiveness to the design. By using small arrows in the header, sub-headers and as links in the bottom left corner guide the visitor to the information they need. The yellow acts as a supplement, a highlight to these areas and backup plan in case the arrows didn’t catch visitor attention.

Digital Podge
Like Clandrei, Digital Podge’s repetition of shapes creates cohesion and makes the eye move about. But this website showcases another perk of rhythm: no matter what is being repeated (i.e. no matter what the unifier), it can be used to highlight links and other information that is imperative to the user experience. On Digital Podge, the circles either indicate links to other pages or showcase an area that the visitor needs to see.

Bard Hole Standal
The yellow color and slanted lines give this website its rhythm by dancing around the website to attract attention. This shows that a website can have more than one major repeating feature to create rhythm. The yellow is present in a variety of elements, which themselves repeat.

Emphasis

How It Works

Emphasis is the same thing as focal point. TVs, fireplaces, artwork: we all have an idea of what qualifies as the focal point of an interior space. It is typically in the center of the space and is the first thing to catch your eye. In Web design, as in interiors, we sometimes create focal points unintentionally. This can be caused by a central or large object in a design, or a central or large text area in a code-heavy layout. Try to complement your focal point with other features such as color, form and texture.

Why It’s Important

While focal points are often chosen for their aesthetic value, they serve a larger purpose in design. The focal point is the anchor of the space, and the item around that should influence all other design decisions.

Hint for Designers

Your secondary pieces don’t have to fall behind. By choosing a large focal point and centering it, you give the space its foundation; this allows the surrounding images to be quirky, without altering the atmosphere or making the design seem “hodge-podge.” Use different border colors to your advantage, or place your surrounding images in a way that appears random.

Examples

Kobi Benezri Studio
The focal point here — the typewriter — is the first place most of us will look. This happens for two reasons. First, it is one of the largest images on the page and so demands your attention. Secondly, there is more white space in that image than in any of the others, which creates contrast. The surrounding images are set in the same monochromatic palette, which throws them into relief.

Marc Ecko
Ecko’s name and photo are the central points of focus. They act as the anchors in this design and make the rest of the images look haphazard and cluttered but still thoughtfully chosen and professional.

Pretty Production

The emphasis here, the dog, does not act as an anchor or hover around the middle, as many points of focus do. But it’s multi-colored brightness and size demand instant attention, as well as act as a break from the gray tones in the rest of the layout.

Color

How it works

Colors work together in many ways. The countless combinations influence our thoughts, opinions and feelings. Because color does so much, our discussion of it has to be limited here: we’ll talk about what it does to the amount of space in your design.

In interiors, the use of warm or cool colors is dictated by factors such as how much light the room gets, how much time you spend in it and how big it is. We Web designers don’t have to worry about these determinants, but we should consider color’s spatial influences when working with heavy or lighter layouts. If your layout is heavy with text, texture, images and the like, go for cooler tones, such as blues, aquas, turquoise and sage. These will make the space seem larger and balance the heaviness. Use warmer tones (red, orange, yellow) to create the appearance of extra space in a minimalist design.

Why It’s Important

The color in our home offers a glimpse into our personality. Our websites are our technological homes, so why would we put any less effort into their color scheme?

Hint for Designers

If you’d like to know whether certain colors go together, look to nature. Think of the beach, and you’ll realize that turquoise, beige and cream go together. Think of fields in autumn, and you’ll think of red, orange, brown and green. Purple, brown, magenta and green are eggplant-themed, while violet, navy and green remind us of hydrangeas. Grays, blacks and browns will always anchor other colors and provide relief. In addition, because of their neutrality, anchor colors don’t have to be included in the palette count; they allow for diversity. The color schemes of our websites also influence users by making them feel calm (with cool tones) or energetic and upbeat (with warm tones). For more information on color combinations and schemes, check this out.

Examples

Saskia Music
Saskia’s layout is wide and has a fair amount of information and graphics. The blue background makes the amount of information less daunting by “expanding” the space. Imagine this website in red — wouldn’t the space have looked smaller and more cluttered?

Octonauts

The Octonauts site is very busy: We have a patterned background, busy header image and two columns of featured news. However, what cools this business are the blue tones throughout. In addition, aside from the few bursts of warm tones, the layout uses mostly cool tones: sage green, light gray, teal and white. Featuring the same layout in warmer tones would have amped up the busyness, and with this much going on on the site, cool tones were a necessity.

ft designer
ft designer uses black as its anchor color, which allows it to incorporate multiple colors (blue, green, white and yellow-green) without becoming overbearing and rainbow-esque.

Texture

How It Works

The key to success is to mix different textures. This is as true for the Web as it is for interiors. Pair rough with slick, patterned with plain, coarse with fine, fuzzy with silky and shiny with matted. Don’t be afraid to experiment with unlikely combinations. You’ll be surprised how well textures bring out the best in each other.

Why It’s Important

Texture is a strong determining factor in a user’s emotional response to a design. Balance, proportion, rhythm, emphasis and color are the basic principles, and texture is a necessary enhancement; it’s the cherry on top.

Hint for Designers

The need for texture almost doubles when using a monochromatic palette. Monochromatic palettes can easily become boring, whether in interiors or on the Web. But they can be intriguing and multi-faceted, and one of the easiest ways to make them that way is to give them plenty of texture.

Examples

Coraline

Coraline features a variety of textures, but the diversity doesn’t take away from the concept. Running with an old-world, grass-roots advertisement motif, Coraline uses stained papers, the look of ‘placarded’ posters, a run-down suitcase with velveteen lining and thin brass nameplates. In so doing, Coraline shows that designers don’t have to sacrifice a strong theme for variety.

Five Cent Stand
At Five Cent Stand, the layering of old papers and pictures with a soft patterned texture is interesting, not overbearing.

Rose Fu
Rose Fu uses multiple textures in its monochromatic palette. Had there been more colors, so many textures might not have been necessary.

Lines

How It Works

Popular places for lines in a room are the floor, upholstery and, more notably, the walls. They’re a simple addition, but lines say a lot about a space. For instance, horizontal lines often give a casual vibe, while vertical lines express formality. Curvy lines can add grace or whimsy, while diagonal lines provide rhythm and movement. You can get creative by using atypical methods to create lines, as seen in the image on the left.

Why It’s Important

Lines help create a mood in an interior space and can provide the same benefit online. The best thing about lines is that they can be as understated or as powerful as you’d like, so it’s one of the less daunting design choices you’ll make.

Hint for Designers

Don’t be afraid to combine lines to find a good balance. For instance, adding horizontal lines can calm the strong formalities of vertical lines, just as curvy lines can add playfulness to casual horizontals. In addition, verticals and horizontals can be applied in a grid-like pattern for the appearance of structure and cleanliness.

Examples

Vyniknite
Vyniknite uses curvy lines to represent blowing wind, giving a whimsical feel to the design.

Daniel Kusaka
Kusaka’s website uses diagonal lines around the square images, creating movement in a layout that could have easily felt stagnant. This simple alteration is enhanced by the various colors of the lines, making them more noticeable and therefore more effective.

What’s Up Cupcake?

What’s Up Cupcake? isn’t about adding a combination of lines to combine or ease certain vibes. Rather, the site uses lines to add to an already formal feel: While ornate picture frames and formal curves around the logo and link area supply the formality, and the vertical lines emphasize it.

Showcase

Balance

ISO50

Indiofolio

Nico Hagenburger

Kashmir

Proportion

Erguvan Platin Elveri

Serj

Saizen Media

Outsource Corporation

Studio E-Space

Rhythm

Halo Creative Agency

Alabama State University

NikeStore

Emphasis

Delete

Looks Like Good Design

Cloud 365 Project

Good

Kerobia

Vectroave

Color

KANTOR Group

M Studio

Textures

Teddies in Space

Gianni’s Steakhouse

Lines

Random Thought Pattern

The Toke

IDFA

Gummisig

Resources And Further Reading

• Design Rules by Elaine Griffin
• Discovering Home with Laurie Smith by Laurie Smith
• Domino, The Book of Decorating by Needleman, Costello and Caponigro
• House Beautiful: 750 Decorating & Design Ideas by House Beautiful
• New Decorating Book by Better Homes and Gardens
• Ready, Set, Decorate by House Beautiful
• Simple Home by Mark and Sally Bailey
• iStockphoto, an image resource for interior pictures
• Discover Interior Design, a blog by interior designer Kristen Warbington
• Paula Grace Designs, a blog by interior designer Paula Grace
• Interior Decorating: The Basics, an article by “The Interior Design Society”
• The Principles of Design , an article by Joshua David McClurg-Genevese at “Digital Web”.

Vu sur : blog.idfr.net

Par Laurent NAIGEON

Site Web
+ Coute pas très cher
+ et – la localisation sera amenée par une triangulation et une demande systématique à l’internaute
- Nécessite que l’internaute soit connecté, plutôt en 3G ce qui est encore assez rare sur le territoire en dehors des grosses agglomérations

Appli mobile
- Coute plus cher car doit déjà au moins être faite en 2 langages (Iphone et Android)
+ Permet l’utilisation de la puce GPS
+ Permet d’embarquer des données (même si on va pas embarquer toute la base de données touristique) et donc demande « moins » la connexion 3G
- Visibilité faible parmi les 15 000 applis Iphone (ou 20000 Android)

Applis existante
+ Une bien meilleure visibilité
- Pas de contrôle du rendu ou des commentaires

La réponse pourrait changer avec une nouvelle fonctionnalité sur la version Mobile de Google. Google affiche maintenant dans la liste de résultat « classique » de site internet le résultat de recherche sur l’Android Market Place. Du coup, le manque de visibilité des applications (en tout cas sur les applications Android pour le moment) n’est plus vraiment d’actualité

Vu sur : wireframeshowcase.com

Vu sur : blogof.francescomugnai.com

Vu sur : observer.com

Adobe senior business development manager Gary Cossimini had 35 minutes yesterday to show off his company’s New York Times reader at the Magazine Publishers of America technology conference, “The Technology of Magazine Content: From Augmented Reality to Tablets.”

The room was peppered with representatives from magazines, media companies and ad agencies. Some sat in white folding chairs around tables near the stage. Others huddled in small groups next to exhibition tables covered in iPads and strange tablets at the back of the conference room on West 18th Street.

The crowd had convened to see the latest trends in digital publishing technology. Mr. Cossimini was talking fast.

“It has interactive features, basically, that are designed to engage readers through common types of interaction,” he said, standing on stage. “It’s going to blossom a lot of new opportunities for advertisers.”

Mr. Cossimini was repeating the keywords of the day: interactive…features…engagement…advertisers.

Images of BMW 3-Series advertisements flashed on a screen behind him. Mr. Cossimini repeatedly returned to the phrase “geography of the mind” to describe the experience of reading a magazine or newspaper.

“I need a drink,” said a man sitting near the front, shaking his head. He was a production manager at a small publishing company.

Nearby the photo director of National Geographic finished up an email on his iPad and pulled out a pen and notebook to jot a few notes about Mr. Cossimini’s remarks. He watched. He listened. He pulled out his iPad again and read an article in the Harvard Business Review.

Earlier in the day, there was a panel on “augmented reality” technology, which involves holding a magazine up to a computer webcam.

“I don’t know if any of you know the U.S. president of Burberry — I don’t think she’s known as a squealer — but when she saw the technology, she actually squealed,” said Paul Robertson, who runs integrated marketing at InStyle.

Mr. Robertson explained the purpose of augmented reality.

“The idea is engaging, entertaining people — which InStyle is known for editorially — and then driving them to point of purchase,” he said.

Mr. Robertson said that InStyle’s marketing department introduced the use of augmented reality at the magazine.

“In an unusual turn of events, our editors followed suit,” he said. “Typically we follow the editors in terms of things that we do and create. They were so taken by this technology and by the Tinkerbell effect that they made the December cover come to life with Taylor Swift.”

Elsewhere, Esquire features editor Richard Dorment was taking a more low-key approach. “We’re not making anyone do anything,” he told The Observer. “We’re just giving them the option.”

Mr. Dorment spoke on a panel about something called QR code with David Edwards, a director at the digital ad agency R/GA.

QR code involves “two-dimensional barcodes” that readers can scan out of a magazine with their cell phones. Japanese magazines have been doing this for over a decade apparently. The idea is that if a reader sees a pair of khakis that he likes in a magazine, for example, he can scan the code and begin shopping for them on his phone.

The Observer asked Mr. Dorment what QR stood for.

“No idea,” he said.

We wanted to know if it was hard to design a magazine around a bunch of barcodes.

“Design people never gripe!” said Mr. Dorment, smiling. “They’re always pleased to do whatever.”

Design man Scott Dadich, the creative director of Wired, spoke on the last panel of the day. This month his magazine’s first iPad edition beat the print edition’s average newsstand sales.

“The greatest lesson I think that we’ve learned over at Condé Nast is the power of design in this process,” Mr. Dadich said on stage.

He showed off different fonts that the magazine was using for its iPad edition and talked about “design fidelity.”

After the panel, The Observer asked Mr. Dadich if he was worried about advertising and editorial commingling.

“I think because it’s such an early time frame that there is going to be a natural back and forth, that we’re going to spur each other on, the ad side and the edit side,” Mr. Dadich said. “There is still a clear distinction between church and state, there is no pay to play, and it’s entirely a separate organization as it is in print.”

Mr. Dadich seemed very confident about all of this. Was he scared to be designing magazines in largely uncharted territory?

“A little bit,” he said. “But as David said today, there aren’t rules yet. We’re trying to fail quickly and pick ourselves up and learn from our mistakes and, as quickly as possible, get a product that our readers are in love with and that we enjoy making and that our advertising partners feel is helpful to them as well.”

Vu sur : digitaltonto.com

What do you know about Justin Bieber?  If you’re not a teenage girl, the answer is probably not much.  Yet if you want to a glimpse at the future of business, you should take another look.

He is a prime example of how our world is changing and how we’ll have to change with it.  Understand Justin Bieber, and you’ll know why business statistics have a serious flaw and how numbers often lie.

The Justin Bieber Story

I’ve been living outside of the US since 1997, when Pearl Jam was still cool.  I get back every few years and, from what I gather by the rolling eyes of my teenage nieces, I’ve become decidedly less hip in the interim.

However, even I couldn’t escape Justin.  Apparently, what started out as his mother posting videos on YouTube became an internet sensation.  His videos were viewed millions of times even before he released his first album, which has sold nearly a million copies.  (For the full story, see here)

That makes Justin the first true social media star.  He says he feels like he won the lotto, but actually his story is far less likely than that.  According to the way today’s businesses are run, his story is more than unlikely, it’s inexplicable.

Justin Bieber in a “Normal” World

Most of business statistics are based on the “normal” distribution, which assumes that events are independent and randomly distributed.  It looks like this:

Normal Distribution

Normal distributions are especially convenient because we know a lot about them.  When things really do happen this way we can predict the probability that a potential event will happen with amazing accuracy

Gauss first used this model to predict the movement of celestial bodies (which is why it is often called a Gaussian curve).  Einstein used it to prove the existence of atoms.  In the 1960’s and 1970’s wizards used it to revolutionize the financial industry (in hindsight, with mixed results).

Statistics based on this “normal curve” have been employed extensively in risk management, financial engineering, confidence testing and a lot of other things.  We use these statistical models to make our businesses more predictable, and therefore more valuable.

However, the normal curve has some problems with young Justin.

Let’s take twitter:  The average twitter user (in the middle of the curve) has 126 followers, while Justin has 2.5 million.  He’s what statisticians like to call an “extreme outlier.”  Unfortunately, normal curves don’t account for the extraordinary.

In other words, according to the statistics of Gaussian curves, Justin Bieber doesn’t really exist mathematically.  He’s just “one of those things.”

Justin Bieber in a Skewed World

Of course, statisticians aren’t that unreasonable.  They have ways of dealing with unruly young data points like Justin Bieber.  It’s called a skewed distribution and it looks like this:

Skewed Distribution

This makes a lot more sense.  There is a lower limit to twitter followers: zero.  After all, you can’t have negative followers.  On the other hand, there is no limit on how many followers you can have, so we can expect a curve skewed towards large numbers.

Unfortunately, we know much less about skewed data sets.  All we can do is use some integral calculus to evaluate young Justin’s chances based on existing twitter users.  However, we would conclude that the probability of Justin Bieber is so unlikely he’s not worth paying attention to.

The smart business move would to be to leave poor Justin by the curb.  Or, if your preferences are more Dickensian, let him sweep out coal chimneys 18 hours a day.  That’ll teach him some character!

Have You Declared Independence?

Now we get to the tricky part.  Math is highly subjective. It involves assumptions.  In this case we assume that events are random and independent.  Make the wrong assumptions and you use the wrong math which will lead to the wrong conclusions. Your numbers will lie.

For the most part, business statistics have worked over the past decade because the independence assumption served as a useful fiction.  The models predicted well enough, as long as you didn’t take them too literally.

That’s what’s fundamentally changed.  Globalization and an interconnected world have made the independence assumption untenable.  Interdependence creates feedback loops and a much more volatile and dangerous world.

The problem is that the normalized world has become so pervasive that we don’t even think about it any more.  Every time you expect things to “average out” or believe a poll or bet a billion or two on derivatives, you are declaring independence.

(Multi-million dollar bonuses can help to inspire such beliefs).

Yet, there is an alternative.  In the late ’90’s, some very smart people started to unravel the interconnected world and successfully explained how networks work. That’s where we’ll find Justin Bieber starts to make more sense.

The Fitness of Justin Bieber

Let’s imagine for a moment that Justin Bieber is a very talented young man and that talent counts for something.

Talent doesn’t figure into conventional statistics, but Albert-László Barabás found that the numbers don’t work without it.  He calls his method the fitness model of networks (and his paper describing it is one of the most cited ever).

In this model, there are two key variables: fitness and links per node, both of which are mutually reinforcing.  When you have a node that is “fit” or good at its function, it attracts links.  The more links it has, the more probable it is that it will gain new ones (the rich get richer).

It also works the other way, a new more fit node will attract links from an existing one, which will diminish the size of the incumbent and decrease its ability to gain a following even further.   Feedback loops are integral to a functioning network.

The more complex and interconnected the network is, the more feedback loops and volatility.  Technologies like the Web and Social Media accelerate the process. The Semantic Web will propel it even further and faster.

In this model, Justin Bieber isn’t an anomaly, he’s a natural consequence (as are market boom and busts as well as other forms of turbulence).

How To Conquer Bieber’s World

Understand the New Forces: Michael Porter’s old five forces framework needs to be updated.  The new forces of chaos, networks and the semantic web are mutually reinforcing and will drive the future.

The old reductionist methods of isolated variables and predictability are no longer effective (if they ever were).

Develop New  Metrics: It’s difficult, if not impossible, to manage what we can’t measure.  While there is still much work to be dome, some basic models have been developed to help us better understand finance, marketing and organizations.

Learn to live with uncertainty: The biggest change is that the new models are fat-tailed, meaning that they allow for considerably more extreme values than the old “normal” statistics assumed.  Outliers can no longer be a considered uncomfortable curiosities, but must be incorporated into any strategic process.

Which brings us back to young Justin who, for all his newfound fame and fortune, is still a sixteen year old boy with a great deal of trials and tribulations in front of him.

Let’s wish him luck.

- Greg

Vu sur : digitalmags.blogspot.com

« Adobe officially launched its digital viewer technology for developers on Tuesday. The software complements Adobe’s recently announced Creative Suite 5 collection of design and development applications.
Publishers using CS5 can build digital magazine layouts that contain the same design elements as those in periodicals found on news racks, while also containing interactive capabilities associated with online publications. « It’s safe to say that if you are already working in InDesign CS5, you’ll be well on your way to producing a beautiful digital version of your publication, » David Burkett, VP and general manager of creative solutions for Adobe, said in a statement.

Adobe plans to make its latest viewer software available on as many hardware platforms as possible, including smartphones and the emerging market for slate computers like the Apple iPad. The strategy is similar to the company’s approach with its PDF format for business document creation. The PDF viewer is widely available at no charge for multiple platforms, while Adobe sells tools for creating documents.
Wired magazine, a Conde Nast publication, built its recently released reader application for the iPad using Adobe’s latest technology. The Wired reader, available through Apple’s App Store for $4.99, lets readers watch video and slideshows, view 360-degreee images and rotate content in vertical and horizontal modes. Another feature made possible through Adobe technology is touch-based navigation.

From Information Week »